What experts are saying about the El Niño expected this winter

WHATCOM COUNTY, Wash. — According to an advisory issued October 8, 2026, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an El Niño advisory remains in place with strong-to-very strong conditions projected through March 2027.

A strong El Niño is reportedly forming across the Pacific and is expected to shape winter weather and marine conditions along the US west coast, including Whatcom County.

In the Pacific Ocean, pulses of warm water beneath the ocean surface—called Kelvin waves—travel east across the equator and pushing warmer water northward along the US west coast. While these deep-water pulses temporarily lift sea levels by 6 to 12 inches down in Southern California, University of Washington atmospheric scientist Cliff Mass recently notes that northwest coastal waters see almost none of that surge. Tide gauges show virtually no sea-level bump along Washington shores, and that is expected to hold through the winter.

Federal and state climate monitors give El Niño a 75% chance of sticking around through March 2027. For coastal Whatcom County, the primary takeaways include the following.

• Milder, Drier Winter: The storm track typically shifts south toward California during a strong El Niño. While major windstorms and rain events can still hit the coast, overall winter conditions are favored to run warmer and drier than normal.
• Lower Mountain Snowpack: Warmer systems mean higher freezing levels in the North Cascades. A thinner snowpack reduces late-spring and summer snowmelt runoff into regional river systems like the Nooksack.

For commercial fishers, shellfish operations, and coastal marine workers, the following are expected.

• Warmer Water: The warm pulse blocks the normal flow of cold, nutrient-rich water up from the deep.
• Food Chain Disruptions: Warmer nearshore water suppresses phytoplankton growth—the microscopic base of the regional food web. Less plankton can thin out forage food for baitfish, salmon, and crabs over the coming season.