The storm system, a remnant of a typhoon, was seen beating a path directly toward the Pacific Northwest over a week ago. Weather data at the time provided reason to be concerned.
Warnings had been issued to prepare for a windstorm of historical proportions impacting nearly all of western Washington. Power line repair crews began preparing and planning for their resources to be spread thin for days.
We’re watching the weather closely and preparing for today’s big wind storm. Report outages online at https://t.co/RKSX2L7lBV. #wawind https://t.co/7wyKAWtGLx
— Puget Sound Energy (@PSETalk) October 15, 2016
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But if the storm system made landfall further north on Vancouver Island, it would have relatively little impact on most of Puget Sound inland areas according to forecasters. Early on, forecasters were frustrated by computer weather models that did not agree on the storm’s path.
A possibly bigger challenge was the storm system’s location out in the Pacific Ocean. There is less weather data for offshore weather than for weather on land. Weather on land typically can be monitored and measured with nearby radar and measurement stations. Weather monitoring out at sea relies on ships and buoys and the hope storms will pass over or near at least one.
While live reporting the event via his popular Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Mass made these comments late in the afternoon,
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Click for more informationThe low center is now within range of the coastal radar and is crossing some of the coastal buoys, so we know a great deal more than a few hours ago.
The latest observations suggest the storm is considerably weaker than forecast. These changes will lessen the {forecast} impacts everywhere, but particularly over Seattle a and southward.
The Portland office of the National Weather Service took to Facebook to explain their forecasting and revealed a discovery made as the storm came closer to land.
What we saw left all of us here scratching our heads. There were 2 centers of circulation! In a typical low pressure center there is only one center of circulation and there were no forecast models forecasting this second low. When the energy is spread between 2 low pressure centers instead of one, the central pressure and winds associated with the system are typically significantly lower than they would be if it were one center of circulation.
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Below is a wind graph from a Ferndale weather station showing the hours before and during the time the storm system passed near Ferndale.
Fortunately, the forecast wind gusts of 70+mph never materialized in the Ferndale area. And, unlike Friday’s windstorm, there were no reports of local damage or power outages. For most people this would be the most desirable outcome.