In California, weather people have a tough time making “sunny and warm” sound interesting every day. In the Pacific Northwest, winter forecasts are often full of “windy and rainy” and this year has been no different.
Sunday night’s windstorm was one for the record books with 80+ MPH gusts but most of Ferndale neighbors made it through without much if any damage or service interruptions. In comparison, Tuesday’s forecast windstorm is expected to be relatively weaker with gusts to only 50 MPH forecast. The National Weather Service’s Wind Advisory says we can expect “south wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph” from 3am to 3pm. UPDATE 6am 12/8/15: The wind advisory has been replaced with a High Wind Warning advising of “south wind 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph.” This is the same forecast which preceded Sunday’s wind event.
With Tuesday’s winds comes heavy rains through Wednesday, both locally and in the mountains. Rainfall forecast estimates nearly one inch will fall Tuesday.
Given how saturated the ground has become from recent rains, expected heavy rains are able to cause surface water flooding in low-lying areas and near streams and creeks. The NWS issued a special statement today warning of the risk of ground instability,
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Click for more informationThis amount of rain will put extra pressure on soil instability… leading to an increased threat of landslides.
Mountain rains combined with snow melt due to the snow level expected to rise to 7000 feet Tuesday has created a high probability the Nooksack River will crest just past its official flood stage at Ferndale (19 feet). An Areal (wide area) Flood Watch alert has been issued by the NWS for Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. It applies to many rivers from the Nooksack as the northern to others in southern Puget Sound.
A more specific forecast of the Nooksack River level at Ferndale predicts the river will crest at just over 19 feet (official flood stage) Wednesday morning. In the past, by the time the river reaches this point there have been road closures (e.g. Marine Drive, Slater Road) and instances of water over roadways. So drivers should be alert starting Tuesday afternoon for water over the roadway either from surface water flooding and/or river flooding.