FERNDALE, Wash. — There remains more active weather in the Ferndale area forecast and mountain precipitation also presents reason for concern for more significant river flooding.
National Weather Service forecasters in the Seattle office said this morning, January 4th, to expect onshore flow to ease this afternoon and evening with showers decreasing across most of western Washington. Today’s temperatures will drop into the 40s today, closer to seasonal normal than the warm 50s experienced in the Ferndale area yesterday.
Ferndale can expect rain ahead of a front that is expected to spread over western Washington Sunday morning and move through the area in the afternoon. Southeasterly gusty winds are expected Sunday morning turning southwesterly and decreasing in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain in the low 40s, possibly dropping into the upper 30s Sunday night.
Beginning Monday another warm front moves into the area. Locally we can expect some rain throughout the day as the warm front is expected to stall on over western Washington according to forecasters. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the upper 40s and gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue into Tuesday.
Most concerning about this warm front for Ferndale will be its impact on precipitation in the north Cascades due to an expected increase in the snow level. Heavy mountain precipitation falling as rain can be expected to cause a significant increase in the Nooksack River level at Ferndale as is reflected in the current river level forecast.
The current river level forecast at Ferndale shows the river cresting about 3am Wednesday at the 18.5-foot mark, within the official minor flood stage range.
At the 18-foot mark, the river begins overtopping its banks flooding low-lying areas and low pasture lands along the river near Ferndale downstream to the mouth of the river. Impacted areas can include VanderYacht and Hovander Homestead Parks. Road impacts typically begin occurring once the river level has past the 15-foot mark, estimated to occur Tuesday morning.
Drivers and property owners near the river are advised to monitor the Nooksack River level forecast at Ferndale since forecasts change frequently. Road closures can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday given the current river level forecast.
Looking further into the extended forecast, computer models show temperatures dropping into the 30s Wednesday evening and NWS forecasters say to expect a cool air mass to move into the area possibly Thursday night or Friday.