Last year was a warm, wet and relatively snow-free winter for Ferndale. Unfortunately, it was also that way in the Cascades as well, resulting in far less than normal snowpack by the end of the season. Word is we are probably in for more of the same this winter.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service along with other supporting organizations have recently compiled their data and came up with a forecast for this winter they expect is 95% accurate. That result is another El Niño winter.
El Niño and La Niña weather anomalies both result from slight temperature changes in Pacific Ocean currents near the equator stretching from South American and across the date-line. Temperature variations in these currents have been discovered to ultimately influence the position of the jet stream in the following months.
The effects of El Niño and La Niña conditions influence Ferndale weather the most from October to March.
Click for more information
Click for more informationWarmer currents (El Niño) cause the jet stream to drop below the Pacific Northwest yielding mostly warmer and drier weather while colder currents (La Niña) cause the jet stream to rise yielding mostly colder and wetter weather.
There are differences in the strength of these weather anomalies which, in turn, are reflected in how far the jet stream swings. El Nino and La Nina weather forecasts are made when the change in specific ocean currents is at least 0.5° C warmer or colder than average. Recent measurements show more than 2.0° C increase so expectations are for a “strong” El Niño winter. This translates into the probabilities of 40% for a drier than normal winter and 60% for a warmer than normal winter.